Section D. Scud Incidents in the Riyadh Area gives a best estimate of 4 Scud missiles launched at Riyadh on this occasion. It also states that 26 Patriot missiles were launched in response. (And 30 more on the following night.)
Scudwatch Opinion: Riyadh (00:50) 4 missiles, Dhahran (00:50) 3 missiles, others (not seen here) (Dhahran) (01:30/02:15/03:33?) 2/3 missiles?
Note here that at Dhahran (00:50), 2 are shot down and one is in the sea, as is the 22:30 Scud.
The Scud campaign is not having a dramatic effect on the conduct of this operation. As you see, the Patriots are doing a fairly good job in countering it. All he can do is sort of aim those things at a city. They are absolutely not militarily significant, so I think that we can accommodate them.
Q: On the Patriot question, we’ve been seeing, as you have, the CNN tapes and everything else coming into Riyadh, coming into Dhahran. Is it your impression that those missiles are getting closer, perhaps, than they should? And is there a reason why the Patriots, in theory, could not engage them at longer distances?
A: Kelly: Patriot is a close-in air defense system, so it’s engaging those Scuds at the ranges that it is programmed to engage them at. It is a close-in protection system. We don’t have a system sitting there that can reach out, and incidentally, the flight time for the Scud is only seven minutes. So from the time we pick it up until the time we can react to it, 7,000 miles from the United States, incidentally, it takes a little time. So I would say the reaction of the Patriots to the Scuds had been fairly spectacular.
Q: A fairly small optimum window, then, to actually shoot with a high degree of assurance on killing them?
A: Kelly: Yes.
Q: Is the Pentagon totally confident now, given that some Scuds appear to have got through the Patriot in Saudi Arabia one perhaps, at least –
A: Well, no more than one.
Q: But they’re totally confident now that a further one will not hit Israel?
A: I think I said the other day, there is no such thing as a fool proof defensive system. The way you phrase your question makes it impossible for me to answer it in the affirmative, but clearly the Patriots have proven themselves to be a very effective system, and it gives us one more method to try to deal with the Scud threat against Israel. It’s not the only thing we’re doing, but it’s another one, and obviously, a very highly effective one.
Q: Can you give more details about the one that Kelly mentioned about an hour and a half ago that fell into the water, and whether Patriots were fired at it?
A: My understanding is that no Patriots were fired at it because it wasn’t thought that it was going to go anywhere where it would do any damage.
Q: This happened where?
A: It was fired from southern Iraq and I think he said it landed in Gulf waters near al-Jubail.
Q: How many Patriots missiles have been fired?
A: I think there’s another case where we’re learning as we go. We were fairly forthcoming early on with precisely the numbers that were fired against every incoming launch of Scuds
Note: Confusion starts here !
This statement could not have been made on January 20th without 24 hour time-travel !!!
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: At the CENTCOM Briefing, LTC Mike Gallagher said: “The U.S. Central Command is in the process of evaluating information on the two salvos of Scud missiles launched by Iraq in Saudi Arabia in the past 24 hours. We now believe ten missiles were launched and U.S. Patriot air defense systems shot down nine of them. Iraq fired the first launch of the three Scud missiles into eastern Saudi Arabia at about 9:50 p.m. (21:45 20th) Saudi time. They were engaged by five Patriot air defense and were shot down near Dhahran. In the second attack, about 12:45 a.m. (00:44-00:52 21st) this morning, January 21st, Saudi time, Iraq fired seven Scud-missiles — four at Riyadh, two at Dhahran, and one went into the waters off Dhahran. Six of the Scuds were shot down by Patriot missiles. The Scud missile landing in the water did not require engagement. We have no reports of damage or injuries. The number of Patriot missiles fired at the incoming Scuds in the second set of launches is still not available at this time. All the missiles were thought to be carrying high explosive warheads.
There are 10 (3+7) Scuds in this report.
3 at Dhahran 21:45 January 20th.
4 at Riyadh, 3 more at/off Dhahran 00:44-00:50 January 21st.
With these attacks (00:30) we went into condition RED and Then BLACK.
Several questions were asked:
Q: “Could you say whether the one which landed in the water actually landed through the help of… perhaps?
A: What I understand is it was just in the waters off Dhahran. Because of its trajectory, was the reason it didn’t require engagement.
Q: The loud explosion heard in Bahrain, Mike, could that have been the one?
A: I can’t say for sure.
Q: Are there any reports of errant Patriot missiles landing in the city here?
A: No, we’ve not received any such reports, and we’ve not received any kind of damage reports either.
Q: A number of us saw what appeared to be a missile landing in the south eastern horizon, as viewed from the hotel, landing with a flash on the horizon. I know you may not want to speculate, but would you guess that this could have been either an errant Patriot, or that it could have been a Scud?
A: You’re talking about the four in the Riyadh area?
Q: I’m sorry, yes.
A: I can’t say what that might have been. But again, just to repeat on those, the ones in the Riyadh area, all four were engaged and destroyed.
Q: Some of us have just seen a crater that looks like it was from a missile or something landing.
A: The question was whether there was a crater. Right now U.S. CENTCOM has not received any such information.
Q: There were some sightings of at least one Patriot that appeared to leave its point and go at a very low altitude horizontally for about a mile and a half, where there in now a large crater and a large building there are a number of Saudi authorities there. Has anyone from CENTCOM gone out to try to get a damage assessment?
A: I don’t have any information on this particular instance, but we’ll be glad to take that question for you.
Q: We just got back from this crater, where it blew out the back side of a building and left a hole in the ground about 10 feet deep and about 13 – 14 feet wide. There were pieces of missile all over the place a mile and a half down the road.
A: We’ll take a look at that, and whatever information I can get on it for you, I’ll be glad to.
Q: Can you tell us what the Patriot is supposed to do? Is it supposed to decimate in mid-air if it doesn’t meet its target?
A: They do have self-destruct system on them, correct.
Q: So that would be a force if it hit the ground?
A: Yes.
Q: Would a Patriot be capable of causing a crater 10 feet deep and 14 feet wide?
A: I can’t answer that for sure. I don’t know about the size of the crater.
Q: How much explosives are in a Patriot?
A: I’d have to get the information for you.
Q: Are you sure that there are no Patriots that fell down in town?
A: Right now I don’t have any indication. However, it sounds like other people may have some different information. We’ll go ahead and take a look at that and try to get that for you.
Q: Can you tell us how you’re going about these investigations? Are you actually going to the site? Are you reviewing videotapes? Are you interviewing people in the neighborhoods? How are you going about this investigation?
A: We’ll use any sources available to us to try to get the right information.
Q: Can I ask how you could have made a mistake in the first place by saying that six Patriot missiles were fired?
A: What we did is we found we had more information, and we wanted to make sure it was right for you.(29)
The Pentagon: At a press briefing, Pete Williams (Assistant Secretary of Defense for Public Affairs) said: “My purpose here is specifically to try to give you what details we have about the Scud launches into Saudi Arabia this afternoon. Let me caution you all, as I’m sure we’ll be doing throughout this operation, that these are preliminary reports. I’ve hesitated coming down here before now because we wanted to make certain that we had a fairly high degree of confidence in what I’m about to say here. I do want to caution you, appeal to you to note that these are preliminary reports. We continue to go back through this and reassess the event and try to get a better idea of what happened. So again, I want to stress that these are preliminary reports.
Our best information now is that there were two launches (21:45 only?) of Iraqi Scud missiles toward Saudi Arabia. We believe they were launched from southern Iraq — I can’t be more specific than that. In response, the U.S. fired five missiles … at the incoming missiles. They were fired from the U.S. Patriot batteries near Dhahran. Both the Scud missiles were destroyed, they were both intercepted. Of the five Patriots fired, three of them hit the targets — two of them hit the larger and one of them may have hit debris. We’re not certain about that. It may be that by the time the other two of the remaining five got there, there wasn’t anything left to hit.
I don’t have any idea what type of warhead. We have a team out there right now that’s trying to assess that. There is, at this point, no reason to believe that they were anything other than conventional, high explosive warheads.
Again, two confirmed Scud launches from southern Iraq. In response, the U.S. fired five Patriot air defense missiles, and both the incoming Scud missiles were destroyed. Several questions were asked, including:
Q: “Did any of the debris fall over populated areas? Was anyone injured?
A: I have no reports of any injuries or any debris striking anyone.
Q: Can you tell us how close in to Dhahran they were when they were intercepted?
A: No, I don’t have that information yet.
Q: There was an air raid warning in Riyadh also. Are there any reports of missiles or any other ordnance fired at Riyadh?
A: We have no report of anything getting to Riyadh. It may well be that the decision was made to sound the warning in Riyadh once the launch was detected heading into Saudi Arabia, but I have no evidence that anything got near Riyadh.
Q: Can you confirm that they were aimed at Dhahran?
A: It’s very hard to tell precisely where they were aimed. The point is, they got near Dhahran and we shot them both down.
Q: You say three Patriots hit targets and five were fired. Do you have any information … Were they destroyed by U.S. Army personnel in mid-air? What happened to those other two missiles?
A: I don’t know what happened to them.
Q: What time did this happen?
A: I don’t have a precise time. I’m still checking on that.
Q: What can you tell us about this incident? What does it mean?
A: It means that the Patriot is a very effective system. You heard the report earlier in the operation of an incoming target at Dhahran which was shot down by a Patriot. Here’s another example. I think it indicates to us that the Patriot in a good system. It also indicates to us that the U.S. crews manning the Patriots are doing an extremely good job.
Q: Do you have any further explanation for the accidental launches of Patriots yesterday?
A: No, that investigation is continuing. I don’t think anybody knows the answer yet.
Note: This Pentagon report (correctly) only covers the January 20th 21:45 events.
JANUARY 21, 1991 (7 or 9/10? Scuds)
This is from A Scud watch document for the same dates;
JANUARY 25, 1991 (9 Scuds)
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: At a CENTCOM Briefing, MG Robert B. Johnston said: “Going to air defense operations… Again, you all know as well as I do, there were no Scud attacks last night and the current count is still 35 – 22 were fired against Saudi Arabia and 13 at Israel.”(48)
The Pentagon: At a briefing, Gen. Thomas Kelly said, “Up until today… 34 Scuds had been launched against Saudi Arabia and Israel — 21 against Saudi Arabia, 13 against Israel. Eighteen of them were destroyed by Patriots, nine landed in uninhabited areas or in the sea. Of the remaining seven, to one degree or another they impacted the earth and caused some damage.
Earlier today, about 11:00 (US time) (19:05 Saudi time) our time, an additional seven Scud missiles were launched against Israel. We don’t have final information on what their disposition was. Some indications on the TV, as you know, were pretty good. You’ll have to get the final answer from Israel. Somewhat after 2:15 (US time) (22:25 local) local this afternoon, two additional Scuds were launched towards Saudi Arabia, and I don’t, obviously, have the final reports on them now, although the indications are that we did pretty well. When I say I don’t have a final, we have to stand behind the numbers we put out, and I have to wait until I get precise reports in.
A: Are the latest Patriot batteries in Israel all from Europe, and are they all American-manned for the time being?
Q: In addition to the ones that the Israelis have already obtained for themselves, and which their crews are studying how to operate; yes, the U.S.-supplied Patriots are all being manned by U.S. crews, and they’re all coming out of Europe.
Q: The videos of the latest Scud attack from Tel Aviv looks as if some Patriot missiles are taking off and impacting. Do you know anything about that? Can you shed any light on that?
A: Whether Patriot missiles hit some of those incoming Scuds?
Q: No, it looks as though Patriots are taking off and then crashing and exploding.
A: I’ve not seen the videotape. Again, let me tell you why it takes a while to sort through what happens in these Scud attacks. These are things that happen very, very quickly. The Scud comes over, you’ve heard people describe how quick the trip is, then you have all these events happening in a very short period of time. You have rapidly incoming missiles, you have Patriots going up to hit them — a lot of things happening very quickly, and it’s almost impossible — especially with cloudy skies — for observers just to stand there and know what is what and what fell where. So you go back and look through all the data that’s gathered during an event like this, from an many different perspectives as you can and then try to sort out precisely what happened. So it’s very, very hard to tell immediately, or within a few hours, even after the event, precisely what happened and what fell where. That takes a long time to sort out. In some cases, you never know for certain what exactly, what piece of what fell where. It’s very hard to sort that out.”(49)
JANUARY 26, 1991 (4/5/6? Scuds)
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: At a CENTCOM Briefing, LTC Mike Scott said: “Now let me address last night’s Scud activity. Iraq fired nine Scud missiles last night — six of those were directed toward Israel, three of them were sent into Saudi Arabia. All nine were intercepted. However, the warhead of one of the two Scuds that were sent towards Riyadh was not destroyed. Although the Scud was hit, the Patriot didn’t directly hit the warhead, it fell to the ground, and subsequently exploded. One civilian was killed; approximately 23 were injured.
This brings the total number of Scuds fired since hostilities began to 45 — 25 of those have been sent to Saudi Arabia, and 20 were directed at Israel. (34 or 35+9=45?? Poor counting again?)
Of the 25 sent to Saudi Arabia, 18 of them have been intercepted, and 16 of those interceptions resulted in complete destruction of the Scud. Seven of the Scuds sent towards Saudi Arabia were allowed to impact in unpopulated areas.
Q: Has there been an investigation launched into why the Patriot missiles failed to stop the Scud warhead last night?
A: I don’t know that there’s any big investigation involved in it — the Patriot did what it was told to do, what the system said it was supposed to do, and that was to hit the missile that was in-bound. Any missile, I don’t care whether it’s an air-to-air missile that’s being launched, or a land-to-land missile, or a missile being launched against a ship, won’t necessarily hit its target, especially in a real dynamic situation like you’ve had, in the exact spot that we would like it hit. It could have, at the last minute, hit some kind of bump of some sort. There’s a myriad of reasons for that. I think the important thing is that it hit the missile. I think the other thing we need to remind ourselves of, there has not been one Scud that has made it into Saudi Arabia that has not been intercepted if we wanted to intercept it.
Q: Could you tell us why the Patriots over Riyadh chase the Scuds south and shoot them down over the city, which seems to be what’s happening?
A: You’re getting into some technical questions with the Patriot system that I’m afraid I’m not qualified to answer.”(50)
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: At the Joint Arab Forces Command military briefing, Col. al-Rubayan said: “Last night brought new Scuds on Dhahran and on Saudi capital Riyadh. Riyadh was attacked at 10:23 last night. The attack on Dhahran came at 3:29 am today, and triggered alarms in Riyadh as well as in the eastern province. The one Scud fired at Dhahran and the two fired at Riyadh were intercepted by Patriot missiles and destroyed. Our information is that debris from one of the two explosives fell on a government building in the city. It’s caused the death of one citizen and injury to thirty other persons who were from a variety of countries including Saudi Arabia. The incident is under active review by the newly formed committee of Saudi and U.S. investigators. On the ground last night, Iraq fired short-range Frog tactical missiles across the border. The missiles impacted in the Saudi Arabian desert, hitting no one and causing no damage….
Q: The damage that was caused to the building that you cited, do you know yet whether it was caused by the Scud, or by the Patriot or by the combination of both? The actual physical damage to that building?
A: The information that we have that it was debris, and could have been from both missiles.
Q: Why is there such little warning given when a Scud’s on its way?…
A: This details goes into the warning and command control system which I really cannot answer…
Q: Where were the people who were injured last night? Were they mostly in one place or were they hit by debris all over the area?
A: They were hit by debris, but not very far.(51)
The Pentagon: At a briefing, MG Martin Brandtner said: “In the last 24 hours, prior to the last 24 hours (??) — prior to the last 15 minutes — Iraq had launched nine Scuds — six of them at Israel and three into Saudi Arabia. Of that, eight of the nine were intercepted by Patriot missiles. Within the past 15 minutes or so, we have had four launches detected — one that was launched into Riyadh and was intercepted by a Patriot missile, and I think you saw that one, probably, and it indicated that there was some debris that did impact into the city. We don’t have any more on that. We also have been advised that three other missiles were launched toward Haifa and one to Tel Aviv. We do not know the outcome of those events at this time, but we do have indications that all were engaged by Patriot missiles.
Q: You said four launches have been intercepted in the last 15 minutes before you came in here – one at Riyadh, three towards Haifa, and one towards Tel Aviv.
A: Brandtner: If I gave you those numbers, it’s one to Riyadh, three to Haifa, and one to Tel Aviv. Five. I’m sorry. (Poor counting yet again?)
Q: Another question about the Scuds, apparently they are separating in the air, warheads breaking away from the booster, which makes it even more difficult for the Patriots to intercept. Can you tell us about the difficulties this poses to the Patriots? And also, if you believe there are a sufficient number of Patriots in theater to deal with the Scud threat?
A: Brandtner: I’ll answer your second question first, and say yes. And secondly, we look at all the operational parameters of the weapons system, and we’re constantly evaluating its performance. We will make sure that it works right, and it is working right. The remarkable success record of the Patriot stands on its own.
Q: A lot of times the boosters are falling to ground and causing a lot of damage on their own.
A: Brandtner: There is debris that comes from the impact of a missile, and how the missile breaks up once it’s been impacted, I think is a chance event. The missile is being struck by the Patriot as intended. Things come out of the sky when you have an impact like that, and you just can’t control what comes out as a result of that.
Q: I’m talking about prior to impact by the Patriot, as they’re breaking apart.
A: I can’t address that.
MG Brandtner said: “Before I go here, let me tell you that we have the Joint Staff giving us the most current information on the Scuds, to try to keep it straight. Three Scuds into Tel Aviv, one into Haifa – not as may have been said earlier. (Only 4 as in launches rather than Scud numbers (5 above) total?)
Q: As a sort of summation, now that you get the latest on Scuds, can you sum up today’s attack, sort of spelling it out?
A: I don’t know that I have a great deal to add to what was said earlier. The best information that we have, as of 4:15 Eastern time on Saturday, is that three Scuds were fired into Tel Aviv and one into Haifa. I don’t know the extent of the damage.
Q: Do you know if they were intercepted?
A: I think Gen. Brandtner has already addressed that, and I don’t have anything further on that.”(52)
The following report is from Scud Watch II;
SCUDWATCH2
Investigating Iraq’s post-1990 SCUD Missile Force…
The question as to whether or not Iraq actually used chemical weapon-loaded Scud missiles during the 1991 Gulf War is still an open one. Further to this, there still remain outstanding questions about the claims that Iraq possessed illegally-retained Scud Missiles in the period prior to the 2003 Invasion of Iraq. There is no complete record to draw upon and no one organization has ever been seen to have compiled an exhaustive and comprehensive analysis.
– A review by a former member of the Dhahran Scud Watchers Club
Scud Missile Events – January 20th/21st 1991
SCUDWATCH NOTES: Z time is GMT, three hours behind Saudi local time. Comments, notes, highlighting and items of especial interest are added by SCUDWATCH.
Included for baseline comparison – taken from an unproven contemporaneous record (see Collection 4):
JANUARY 18th – 03:45 – Dhahran – 1 missile
(First Scud missile launch at Saudi Arabia)
JANUARY 20th – 21:45 – Dhahran – 3 missiles
JANUARY 21st – 00:50 – Dhahran – 3 missiles
JANUARY 21st – 00:50 – Riyadh – 3 missiles
JANUARY 21st – 01:30 – Dhahran – False Alarm
JANUARY 21st – 02:00 – Dhahran – False Alarm
JANUARY 21st – 03:30 – Dhahran – False Alarm
JANUARY 21st – 22:30 – Dhahran – 1 missile
30/31 Jan 1991;
The war is over for me. I went home on emergency leave due to my father having a heart attack. He survived and lived until Oct 1991. I know I should have returned and I regret that I didn’t. I should have stayed and came home with the rest. I never got the hero’s welcome that my unit received when they got off the plane there at Langley.
I went to war one man and came back another.
THE DEFENDER 
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